On the 22nd, a car parked next to a women's military academy was bombed in Tripoli, Libya.

On the 21st, Libyan opposition forces attacked the capital city of Tripoli. As of now, Gaddafi's eldest son, Mohamed Gaddafi, has been placed under house arrest, and his second son, Saif Gaddafi, and third son, Saadi, have been arrested. However, no trace of Gaddafi has been found so far. On the early morning of the 22nd, Abdullah Mahbub, a member of the National Transitional Council of Libya, said that the opposition is searching for Gaddafi throughout the city.

Self proclaimed to stay in Tripoli

Since NATO bombed Libya, Gaddafi has rarely appeared in public. In the past month, Gaddafi has only conveyed information to the public through recordings.

After the opposition troops arrived in Tripoli, Gaddafi delivered three consecutive recorded speeches, and his last recorded speech was delivered at 1am on the 22nd. Gaddafi called on the public to spontaneously take to the streets in the recording to protest against the "aggression" of the opposition and the West. Gaddafi said that if the people of the capital do not take action against the opposition, "Tripoli could become a sea of fire

Gaddafi insisted in the recording that he is still in Tripoli, but did not disclose his specific hiding place. At the same time, he also called on tribal leaders to send armed forces into the capital to resist the opposition. Gaddafi said, "Do you really want Tripoli to become Baghdad

The escort team surrendered to the opposition

As of noon on the 22nd local time, most areas of Tripoli have fallen into the hands of the opposition. Abdullah Mahbub, a member of the Libyan opposition's National Transitional Council, confirmed that the opposition forces have taken control of Tripoli and are currently searching for Gaddafi throughout the city.

Near the Aziziya Barracks, which is considered to be Gaddafi's hiding place, there was a firefight between Gaddafi's government forces and opposition forces. Arab media quoted the National Transitional Council of Libya as saying that the security guard responsible for Gaddafi has surrendered to the opposition armed forces by laying down their weapons. Gaddafi often resided in the Aziziya military camp, but it is unknown whether he was still in the camp when opposition forces entered Tripoli.

Gaddafi's current hiding place is unknown. Mustafa Abdul Jalil, Chairman of the National Transitional Council, said it is difficult to determine at this stage whether Gaddafi has fled Libya. One possibility is that Gaddafi is still inside the Aziziya military camp. A diplomat who has had contact with Gaddafi in the past two weeks said that there are multiple bunkers inside the Aziziya military camp, and Gaddafi "is still in Tripoli, possibly inside the Aziziya military camp residence".

Abdul Jalil said at a press conference on the 22nd that if Gaddafi is captured alive, he will be given a fair trial. (Zhang Le)

reaction

Multiple countries demand Gaddafi to step down

Egypt recognizes opposition regime as beneficial to legitimate government

After the Libyan opposition forces invaded Tripoli, the United States and some Western countries successively expressed their opinions, urging Gaddafi to step down immediately.

On the evening of the 21st, US President Obama delivered a speech, stating that all signs in Tripoli indicate that the Gaddafi regime is on the brink of collapse. He called on Gaddafi to relinquish power and avoid further casualties.

A spokesperson for the EU foreign affairs department stated on the 22nd that the Gaddafi regime has come to an end, and the EU calls for Gaddafi to step down quickly to avoid further bloodshed. The Prime Minister's Office at 10 Downing Street in London also issued a statement, stating that Gaddafi's "end is coming" and that Gaddafi has "committed horrific crimes against the Libyan people". The French presidential palace also issued a statement saying that President Sarkozy hopes Gaddafi will immediately hand over power to "prevent the Libyan people from suffering another useless war".

In addition to calling for Gaddafi to step down quickly, some countries are also preparing for the "post Gaddafi era". On the 22nd, Egyptian Foreign Minister Arabi announced that Egypt recognizes the National Transitional Council of the Libyan opposition as the legitimate government of Libya. The Secretary General of the Arab League announced that the Arab League maintains a position of "unity and solidarity" with the Libyan opposition regime. (Zhang Le)

observation

Four possible outcomes that Gaddafi may face

South Africa did not send a special plane to pick up Gaddafi, Russia will never take him in, the United States denies Gaddafi's escape

The fall of the capital Tripoli and the arrest of three sons have immediately drawn global attention to the future of former "arrogant strongman" Gaddafi.

Conclusion 1: Missing

Before the opposition invaded Tripoli, analysts tended to believe that Gaddafi was currently in the Aziziya barracks.

The US media quoted a diplomat as saying that Gaddafi has not left yet. He is still in Tripoli, at his residence in the Aziziya barracks, "said the diplomat, who declined to be named. He had seen Gaddafi in the barracks in the past two weeks.

The diplomat also said that although the Aziziya Barracks are often bombed by NATO, due to the numerous underground shelters, Gaddafi can continue to go missing for a period of time. British media reported that Gaddafi had long anticipated that the barracks would be besieged, and even if the barracks fell, Gaddafi had the ability to continue hiding.

Conclusion 2: Resistance

Professor Wang Lian of International Politics at Peking University said in a media interview that Gaddafi has a strong personality and has repeatedly stated that he will not leave Tripoli and will "fight at the last moment". If he were still in Libya, he would likely resist to the end like Saddam in 2003 and would not seek refuge in any country.

Former Libyan Prime Minister Jaloud, who just defected, said on the 22nd, "Gaddafi will not surrender, nor will he commit suicide

Ending Three: Escape

According to American media analysis, Gaddafi was secretly transferring assets when the opposition began attacking Zawiyah, indicating that Gaddafi had long planned to leave Tripoli. Gaddafi's potential escape destinations include Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Chad, and South Africa.

According to Arab media, Gaddafi is seeking political asylum with South Africa and is in talks with countries such as Zimbabwe. On the 22nd, South Africa denied sending a chartered plane to bring Gaddafi to the country for asylum. Russia has also announced that it will never take in Gaddafi. We have no information about him (Gaddafi) leaving Libya, "said Dave Lapan, spokesperson for the US Department of Defense

Conclusion 4: Trial

Zhang Xiaodong, a researcher at the Institute of West Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that if Gaddafi is arrested, his only choice is to go to trial because he now has no bargaining chips.

At present, Gaddafi has been prosecuted by the International Criminal Court and will also be prosecuted by domestic courts after his arrest. No matter where he is ultimately tried, Gaddafi will not have a good outcome.

Wang Lian believes that for supporters of Gaddafi, the pre-trial leadership is undoubtedly the greatest humiliation and most powerful deterrent to them. For the opposition itself, this is an excellent opportunity to show its legitimacy and democracy to its own people and the international community.